Can the Gulf Rebuild the Middle East?

Despite numerous challenges, the Gulf states have gained structural advantages that may transform the Middle East. When the Israel-Hamas cease-fire deal was announced on October 9, Israeli negotiator Alon Nitzan warmly embraced Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. This moment sharply contrasted with events just a month earlier, when Israel bombed a neighborhood in central Doha, prompting Al Thani to condemn Tel Aviv’s “state terrorism.”

At that time, some questioned whether the Gulf states would shift away from the United States due to the Trump administration’s ambiguous reaction to Israel’s strike and the resulting crisis of trust. However, pragmatism prevailed. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states maintained their alliance with the U.S. and worked closely with it on the latest Gaza cease-fire.

Significantly, the Trump administration broke with past policy by declaring that any future attack on Qatar would be considered a direct threat to the United States. There are indications this guarantee might soon extend to Saudi Arabia as well. This highlights a broader point: despite recent regional tensions, the GCC is unlikely to alter its geopolitical alignment.

In fact, over the past two years, Israel’s actions have weakened Iran and its allies, creating opportunities to reshape the region’s political order.

"state terrorism." — Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
"any future attack on Qatar to constitute a direct threat to the United States." — Trump administration declaration

Author’s summary: The Gulf states, despite tensions, remain aligned with the U.S. and hold growing influence to reshape the Middle East’s political landscape.

Foreign Policy — 2025-11-04

Can the Gulf Rebuild the Middle East?

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