Is the UK’s national debt set to match the size of the economy? – Full Fact

UK National Debt: Is it Set to Match the Size of the Economy?

A claim by Conservative shadow chancellor Mel Stride states that the UK's debt will increase annually under Labour until it equals the size of the entire economy.

Under Labour, the UK's national debt is set to rise every single year until it is the size of the entire economy.

According to fact-checking, public sector net debt is forecast to increase every year until 2029/30 in nominal and real terms. However, as a percentage of GDP, it is set to peak at 96.3% in 2028/29, then fall slightly.

Full Fact, a team of independent fact checkers, aims to improve the information environment and protect good public debate by exposing and countering harmful bad information.

Author's summary: UK debt may peak at 96.3% of GDP.

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Full Fact Full Fact — 2025-10-14